The Livret A rate has risen to 1.7% since August 1, 2026, inflation measured over one year reached 2.4% in August, and the Banque de France has revised its growth projections for the current year downward. These three signals, published in September 2026, directly alter savings and investment decisions.
Real yield of the Livret A: a misleading nominal rate
The increase of the Livret A from 1.5% to 1.7% on August 1, 2026, has reignited inflows. The outstanding amounts continue to swell, driven by a security reflex that we observe during each period of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The problem is arithmetic. With inflation at 2.4% over one year in August 2026, the real yield of the Livret A remains negative, around -0.7 percentage points. Every euro left in this account loses purchasing power, slowly but mechanically.
Here we find, among all the news from Finance Libre, a recurring topic: the confusion between nominal yield and real yield. A saver comparing their account rate to the official inflation only captures part of the picture, as the Directorate General of the Treasury published an analysis on September 4, 2026, confirming that the gap between perceived inflation and measured inflation has widened since 2025.
This divergence explains the maintenance of a high savings rate. Households “feel” a stronger erosion than that captured by price indices, and react by storing more liquidity in guaranteed accounts, even at a real loss.
Banque de France projections for 2026: sluggish growth and rising unemployment
The macroeconomic projections published on September 15, 2026, by the Banque de France outline a scenario of limited growth in 2026, followed by an anticipated rebound in 2027 and 2028. The downward revision is based on two combined factors: international uncertainty (trade tensions, energy prices) and tightening financing conditions.
The job market absorbs the shock with a delay. The Banque de France anticipates a temporary rise in unemployment, which will weigh on household consumption and, in turn, on the results of domestic listed companies.
What this means for a portfolio invested in French stocks
A slowdown in consumption primarily affects cyclical stocks (retail, automotive, construction). Defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) and companies with high export exposure, on the other hand, benefit from a euro that remains under pressure.
We recommend checking three elements before any decision:
- The share of revenue generated in the eurozone compared to the rest of the world, as the divergence in growth between regions penalizes companies too dependent on the domestic market.
- The level of net debt relative to gross operating surplus: in a context of rising long-term rates, highly leveraged companies see their financial burden increase mechanically.
- The distribution policy (dividend + share buyback): a dividend yield supported by debt does not offer the same security as a coupon financed by free cash flow.
Long-term rates and sovereign debt: the state borrows at higher costs
The French state is now borrowing at significantly higher rates than a year ago. This rise in bond yields changes the hierarchy of investments.
The euro fund in life insurance is becoming a direct competitor to the Livret A for cautious savers. Insurers, who are gradually reinvesting their portfolios in better-yielding bonds, are able to raise their offered rates. Some contracts already show yields exceeding that of the Livret A, with the tax advantage of the life insurance wrapper after eight years of holding.
Residential real estate: credit remains under pressure
The rise in long-term rates is transmitted to mortgage credit. The residential market remains under pressure, and financing conditions weigh on activity.
For a real estate investor, the calculation of rental profitability must incorporate a sustainably higher financing cost. The leverage effect of credit has diminished compared to the years of historically low rates.
Taxation of savings: signals sent by the Court of Auditors
The Court of Auditors has recently made proposals aimed at increasing the taxation of savings. No legislative measures have been adopted yet, but the direction is clear: tax loopholes related to savings products are in the crosshairs.
Anticipating a tax change does not mean panicking. The legislative calendar remains uncertain. Diversifying wrappers (PEA, life insurance, ordinary securities account, real estate) limits exposure to a sudden change in a single regime.
The combination of a negative real yield on regulated savings, decelerating growth, and potentially increased taxation requires thinking in terms of net yield after inflation and after tax. This is the only indicator that matters to measure whether your wealth is progressing or declining.
